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Blackjack
Card Counting:
Unlike casino games such as roulette and craps where the
outcome of one play has no effect on any future play, a hand of
blackjack depletes the deck of the cards used in that hand, and
this can alter the probability of certain events occurring on
the next deal. Specifically, if the remaining cards have a
higher proportion of 10-count cards and Aces than normal, it is
more likely that a player will be dealt a natural, which is to
the player's advantage (yes, it's also more likely for the
dealer to get a natural--but the dealer only wins even money,
while the player is paid 3:2). When the deck has more small
cards like 4s, 5s, and 6s; it is more likely that the player
will be dealt a bad hand and bust, favoring the dealer
(likewise, they increase the chance of a dealer bust as well,
but when the player busts, the dealer wins even if he later
busts himself).
Because the house advantage in blackjack is so small to begin
with, it is quite common for a deck that happens to be "rich" in
10-counts and Aces to offer a positive expectation to the player
on the next hand. By keeping track of the cards played, a player
can take advantage of these situations by betting larger amounts
when the deck is in his favor, and smaller amounts when it is
not.
In the long run, the deck will be unfavorable to the player
as often as it is favorable, but it is the amount bet under each
condition that counts. The player can also use information about
the deck's composition to alter strategy.
For example, basic blackjack strategy calls for hitting a 16
when the dealer's up card is a 10, but this is a very close
play; one loses less by hitting than standing, but not by much.
If it is known, however, that the deck is depleted of small
cards like 4s and 5s, and rich in 10s, that may alter the odds
in favor of standing.
Most blackjack card counting strategies assign a
positive, negative, or zero point value to each card in the
deck. Normally, low value cards, such as a 2 or 3, are given a
negative value, and 10s are given a positive value. The exact
number assigned to the cards depend on the specific blackjack
card counting method in use.
The blackjack card counting require keeps a running
tally of the point values as they are dealt. In order to make
the count an accurate representation of the percentage of "good"
cards left in the deck, this running tally must normally be
divided by a factor based on the counter's estimate of the
number of undealt cards that are left (so-called unbalanced
counts, do not require this additional adjustment, because that
is factored into the count).
If the tally is a sufficiently high, the counter can increase
his or her bet, and also may make modifications to basic
strategy. All of these calculations must be accurate, at the
same time that the dealer and other players may be talking to
him, and it must be done in such a way that the casino does not
notice that any counting is taking place, in order to avoid
facing casino countermeasures.
Blackjack card counting strategies which assign point values
of -1, 0, or +1 are called level one counts, and are considered
the easiest to perform. Slightly greater accuracy, at the cost
of increased difficulty and likelihood of making mistakes,
involves the use of level two counts, which assign point values
of -2, -1, 0, +1, or +2 to the various cards. This greater range
of point values adds to the complication of keeping an accurate
tally in one's head.
A final complication in card counting involves the issue of
how to treat aces. Aces can add the lowest possible value of 1
to a player's card total, which implies that they should have a
negative point count; but for purposes of getting a blackjack,
they are extremely valuable to have remaining in the deck. Most
counting strategies give aces a positive count, recognizing that
there is a compromise involved in this process. One scheme
actually assigns a zero value to aces, and requires the counter
to keep a separate side count of aces.
Casinos can counter card counting by using large numbers of
decks in dealing cards or by frequently shuffling the cards.
However, casinos dislike this because it reduces the amount of
time that the non-card counting blackjack players are playing
and consequently losing money to the house. Casinos also look
out for known card counters, who are banned from play, as well
as look for suspicious actions such as a long series of small
bets followed by large one. Try for free or for real the basics
of Blackjack card counting:
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